Sunday, August 7, 2011

A little overheating at the Bureau of Meteorology: Man-made warming of Australia detected

The BOM claim their adjustments are random and neutral. Yet when Ken looked at the raw data from Australia’s 100 high quality rural sites, the adjustments increased the trend in the raw data by 40% — from a 0.6°C rise over 100 years, to 0.85°C over 100 years.
In an email to Ken, Dr David Jones, Head of Climate Monitoring and Prediction, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, made a clear claim that the adjustments had no real effect:
“On the issue of adjustments you find that these have a near zero impact on the all Australian temperature because these tend to be equally positive and negative across the network (as would be expected given they are adjustments for random station changes).”
Perhaps there are good reasons for all these corrections. But if Ken’s analysis is right, the adjustments themselves account for a third of the reported warming trend in Australia.

This is happening all the time. Figures are being massaged upwards. Last November in Albury a predicted record breaking run of 30 degree days fell short. Or seemed that way until a week later the temperature on the day the mercury fell short was adjusted upwards. In Brisbane, a predicted record breaking day was going to fall well short.But then there was this strange upward spike that saw temperature rise more than a degree in 30 minutes, break the record, then fall back to where it was 30 minutes later.

Also check out the BoM media releases. Any abnormally high temperature warrants a press release, any abnormally cold day passes without comment. Like the British Met Bureau, all BoM seasonal predictions are bad news, always hot, always dry. And like the Meto Office, these BoM forecasts are more often that not, wrong. This winter, in SE Australia, it was supposed to be very dry. We have had the best winter rain in years.

It is propaganda, not science, that drives the BoM.

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