Pressure off Abbott as Gillard begins to sweat

AS the final parliamentary term of this government resumes today, two fundamental issues have emerged from a fortnight of political shock and awe - Labor's primary vote is the death zone it has been for months, and Tony Abbott has received a boost at the start of the election campaign.

Julia Gillard's bold political strokes designed to change the focus from Labor failure, to make 2013 her year and pressure the Opposition Leader have received an immediate rebuff from voters.

Calling the election in September looks more like a stroke than a masterstroke; there is the unavoidable fallout from corruption allegations surrounding unions and the ALP and the internal interference; and ministerial resignations have looked like chaos. There was a false hope in the holiday-affected Newspoll survey in January, with a stand-out one-off rise in Labor's primary vote to 38 per cent.

This survey not only returns Labor to where it was at the end (and beginning) of last year, the other shifts - away from Gillard and to Abbott - are consistent with a real move in voter sentiment.

Politically, all eyes will be on the Newspoll survey, and the recognition that the trend established late last year on primaries is continuing into the election year. But for Gillard it's worse and for Abbott it's much better.

Labor has thrown all its efforts into destroying Abbott and entrenching the view he is "unpopular" with a wistful intent of stirring trouble within the Liberals.

On these figures, Gillard and Abbott are about as "popular" - or unpopular - as each other and suddenly there's only a polling margin of error between Gillard and Abbott as preferred prime minister.

The pressure's off Abbott and back on Gillard at the beginning of the longest election campaign in history.

Pressure off Abbott as Gillard begins to sweat